Flood Early Warning System

Pakistan's national end-to-end flood monitoring, forecasting, and warning platform operated by the Flood Forecasting Division, PMD.

Riverine Floods Flash Floods Urban Flooding

Mission: To protect lives and livelihoods across Pakistan by providing timely, accurate, and actionable flood warnings — integrating state-of-the-art observational networks, numerical weather prediction, and hydrological modelling to give communities and authorities the maximum possible lead time before flood events.

How the EWS Works

1
Data Collection

Real-time data streams from a nationwide network of automatic weather stations, manned observatories, WAPDA telemetric gauges, Doppler radars, and satellite feeds.

  • Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)
  • Manned synoptic observatories
  • Telemetric discharge stations
  • Doppler weather radars
  • Satellite rainfall estimates
2
Forecasting & Modelling

Observed data feeds into an ensemble of Numerical Weather Prediction and hydrological models to generate quantitative flood forecasts at multiple time horizons.

  • NWP model runs (ICON, WRF, GFS, ECMWF)
  • Flash-flood guidance (FFGS / PARFFGS)
  • Hydrological routing (FEWS, IFAS, HEC-RAS)
  • Reservoir inflow forecasting
  • Ensemble uncertainty quantification
3
Warning & Dissemination

Forecasters issue calibrated warning products to the full emergency management chain — from national to district level — through multiple communication channels.

  • Bulletins A, B, C & Advisories
  • NDMA & PDMAs direct brief
  • Electronic & print media release
  • FFD website & email alerts
  • SMS / WhatsApp dissemination

Observational Network

FFD operates and utilises the following ground-truth observation infrastructure across Pakistan:

102
Automatic Weather Stations
114
Manned Observatories
45
Telemetric Gauge Sites
8
Doppler Weather Radars
~130
Discharge Monitoring Sites

Forecasting Models

Numerical Weather Prediction
ICON
ICON — Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) · Global & regional
WRF
WRF — Weather Research & Forecasting Model NCAR · Regional high-resolution runs over Pakistan
GFS
GFS — Global Forecast System NOAA / NCEP · Global 0.25° operational model
ECMWF
ECMWF — Integrated Forecasting System European Centre · Medium-range & ensemble guidance
Hydrological Models
FEWS
Delft-FEWS / SAC-SMA / SOBEK Deltares · Operational since 2007 · River routing & reservoirs
FFGS
FFGS / PARFFGS — Flash Flood Guidance System WMO & USAID-BHA · Pakistan-scale flash flood thresholds
IFAS
IFAS — Integrated Flood Analysis System ICHARM / PWRI · Distributed rainfall-runoff modelling
HEC-RAS
HEC-RAS — Hydrologic Engineering Center RAS USACE · 1-D/2-D hydraulic routing & inundation mapping

Forecast Lead Times

FFD issues warnings across four operational forecast horizons, enabling both immediate response and advance preparedness planning.

Now-casting

0 – 6 hours
Radar QPE + AWS real-time alerts

Short Range

1 – 3 days
NWP + FFGS flash-flood guidance

Medium Range

4 – 7 days
Ensemble NWP + hydrological routing

Seasonal Outlook

1 – 3 months
Rabi / Kharif seasonal forecasts

Warning Products

Bulletin A — Meteorological
  • Synoptic situation summary
  • Rainfall analysis & rainfall forecasts
  • Temperature and wind outlook
  • Monsoon progress & activity level
Bulletin B — Hydrological
  • River flows at key gauging stations
  • Reservoir inflows, levels & storage
  • Flood status per river reach
  • 72-hour hydrological forecast
Bulletin C — Flood Alert
  • Issued when High or above flood status
  • Site-specific discharge projections
  • Threatened areas & timeline
  • Recommended actions for PDMAs
Special Advisory
  • Extreme weather & flash flood advisories
  • Urban flooding alerts
  • Depression and cyclone advisories
  • Public communication language
Weekly Forecast Outlook
  • 7-day extended forecast narrative
  • Regional rainfall probability
  • River trend outlook
  • Issued every Sunday

Flood Warning Levels

River conditions are classified into six levels based on observed discharge thresholds at each gauging site:

Normal
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Exceptional
NORMAL Below minor flood level
LOW Minor inundation likely
MEDIUM Moderate flooding
HIGH Significant flood risk
VERY HIGH Severe inundation
EXCEPTIONAL Catastrophic flooding

Dissemination & Infrastructure

Warning Recipients
  • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
  • Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs)
  • District Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs)
  • Federal & Provincial Government Ministries
  • WAPDA / IRSA for reservoir operations
  • Electronic & Print Media
  • FFD Website & Email Alert Subscribers
  • SMS & WhatsApp Emergency Channels
World Bank Infrastructure Upgrade
$50M Total investment in EWS modernisation
300 New automatic weather stations
5 New Doppler radars (Quetta, Gwadar, Lahore, D.I. Khan, Cherat)
220 Tf High-Performance Computing capacity

International Partners & Collaborators

Pakistan's national flood EWS is built and sustained through partnerships with leading international meteorological, hydrological, and development organisations:

WMO USAID-BHA WAPDA Deltares (Delft) HRC — Hydrological Research Centre ECMWF ICHARM / PWRI World Bank DWD (ICON Model) NOAA / NCEP (GFS)